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Decision Analysis; Wisdom of Crowds; Judgment and Decision Making; Forecasting
Academic Degrees
PhD, Duke University, 2016
MS, Carnegie Mellon University, 2010
MS, University of Maryland, College Park, 2009
AB, Bowdoin College, 2007
Professional Experience
Assistant Professor, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, 2016 – present
Instructor, Duke University, Master of Engineering Management Program, 2014
Selected Publications
Soll, J.B., Palley, A.B., Klayman, J., Moore, D.A. (2024). Overconfidence in Probability Distributions: People Know They Don’t Know but They Don’t Know What to Do About It. Management Science, 70(11), 7422–7442. View Full Text
Palley, A.B., and Satopää, V. (2023). Boosting the Wisdom of Crowds Within a Single Judgment Problem: Weighted Averaging Based on Peer Predictions. Management Science, 69(9), 5128–5146. View Full Text
Palley, A.B., Steffen, T.D., Zhang, X.F. (2023). The Effect of Dispersion on the Informativeness of Consensus Analyst Target Prices. Management Science, accepted. View Full Text
Soll, J.B., Palley, A.B., and Rader, C.A. (2022). The Bad Thing About Good Advice: Understanding When and How Advice Exacerbates Overconfidence. Management Science, 68(4), 2949–2969. View Full Text
Palley, A.B., and Soll, J.B. (2019). Extracting the Wisdom of Crowds When Information is Shared. Management Science, 65(5), 1949-2443. View Full Text
Abstract
Using the wisdom of crowds -- combining many individual judgments to obtain an aggregate estimate -- can be an effective technique for improving judgment accuracy. In practice, however, accuracy is limited by the presence of correlated judgment errors, which often emerge because information is shared. To address this problem, Asa and his colleague propose an aggregation procedure called pivoting that adjusts a crowd's average judgment away from the average estimate of the judgment that all other respondents will provide on average. Data from four studies suggests that pivoting can significantly outperform classical averaging procedures.
Offerman, T., and Palley, A.B. (2016). Lossed in Translation: An Off-the-Shelf Method to Recover Probabilistic Beliefs from Loss-Averse Agents. Experimental Economics, 19(1), 1–30. View Full Text
Palley, A.B., and Kremer, M. (2014). Sequential Search and Learning from Rank Feedback: Theory and Experimental Evidence. Management Science, 60(10), 2525-2542. View Full Text
Keeney, R.L., and Palley, A.B. (2013). Decision Strategies to Reduce Teenage and Young Adult Deaths in the United States. Risk Analysis, 33(9), 1661-1676. View Full Text
