Journal Articles

Predictability in Equilibrium: The Price Dynamics of Real Estate Investment Trusts

2007, Real Estate Economics

Dennis R. Capozza, Ryan Israelsen


This research hypothesizes that, in markets where information costs, transaction costs and the economic impact of information can vary widely, we should expect predictability to vary systematically. We test this hypothesis with data on equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) from 1985 to 1992. We document that levels of predictability vary with firm characteristics like leverage, size and focus. Momentum is stronger for larger, more levered REITs. Reversion is faster for focused, levered REITs. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that, in equilibrium, securities, where information is either less costly to acquire or has less impact on fundamental value, should exhibit less predictability.


Capozza, Dennis and Ryan Israelsen (2007), "Predictability in Equilibrium: The Price Dynamics of Real Estate Investment Trusts," Real Estate Economics, Vol. 35, No. 4, pp. 541-567.


Real Estate Investment Trust, REIT, real estate, stock returns, finance, prices, momentum, reversal, predictability, price dynamics

Kelley School of Business

Faculty & Research