Kelley School's Business Outlook Panel to provide economic forecast for 2010
Oct. 6, 2009
EDITORS: A schedule of the Business Outlook Panel's appearances is below. Arrangements have been made for electronic media covering the Indianapolis presentation. Media who wish to cover other panel events should check with local sponsors.
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. -- Last November, the Indiana University Business Outlook Panel toured the state forecasting how the economy would fare in 2009. As they predicted, this year's economy proved quite a challenge to predict, with a number of major disruptions shaking up the economic landscape.
And forecasting where we're heading in 2010 is every bit as challenging, say the experts.
"In recent months we've faced a number of blows to the economy," said Jerry Conover, director of the Indiana Business Research Center (IBRC) in IU's Kelley School of Business. "Immense downsizing and bankruptcies in the automotive sector, banks closing across the nation, lenders reluctant to issue new loans -- this turbulent environment keeps everyone on edge.
"But there is some light at the end of the tunnel, as the panel predicted last year," Conover noted. "Now the challenge lies in forecasting how quickly the economy will recover and charting the risks that remain in its way. People are anxious to know what lies ahead, so we expect a strong turnout for this year's Business Outlook Panel."
For 36 years, the Kelley School of Business has presented its national, state and local forecasts through a series of presentations in 10 Indiana cities. Its tour will begin with a presentation at 7:30 a.m. Thursday, Nov. 5, in Indianapolis at the Columbia Club, 121 Monument Circle.
As in the past, this year's panel will feature faculty members from the Kelley School and local panelists from other IU campuses and other universities, offering perspectives on the global, national and state economies and financial markets.
The starting point for the forecast is the Econometric Model of the United States, developed by IU's Center for Econometric Model Research, which analyzes numerous statistics to develop a national forecast for the coming year. The Econometric Model of Indiana, a joint effort of the IBRC and the CEMR, provides a corresponding forecast for the state's economy. The Business Outlook Panel then adjusts the forecast to reflect additional insights it has on the economic situation.
Appearing at the Indianapolis presentation will be Conover; Kyle J. Anderson, visiting assistant professor of business economics; Robert Neal, associate professor of finance; and Willard Witte, associate professor of economics and co-director of the Center for Econometric Model Research. Phil Cochran, associate dean of the Kelley School for Indianapolis programs, will moderate the discussion and public Q-and-A session to follow.
This year's tour is sponsored by IU's Kelley School of Business, the IU Alumni Association, IU campuses and various community organizations.
To register for the Indianapolis presentation, contact the Kelley School of Business Office of Development and Alumni Relations at 812-855-6340 or go to its Web site at http://kelley.iu.edu/alumni/calendar/. The cost is $30 for IU Alumni Association members and $35 for everyone else. A table for 10 people can be reserved for $325. Advance registration is encouraged and should be done by Oct. 29. Call 812-855-6340 after the deadline.
For questions about other panel presentations, contact the sponsoring local organization or the Indiana Business Research Center at 812-855-5507 or go to its Web site at http://www.ibrc.indiana.edu/.
Business Outlook Panel tour schedule
(Host organizations and contact information are listed in parentheses)