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Indiana University Bloomington


The Kelley Advantage

The department is home to the authors of Managerial Economics and Business Strategy and Games and Information: An Introduction to Game Theory, two of the nation’s leading textbooks in the field.

Research and Publications

Working Papers

The Forward Premium Puzzle and Latent Factors Day by Day


Jürgen von Hagen, Kerstin Bernoth, Casper G. de Vries


We use futures instead of forward rates to study the complete maturity spectrum of the forward premium puzzle from two days to six months. At short maturities the slope coefficient is positive, but these turn negative as the maturity increases to the monthly level. Futures data allow us to control for the influence of an unobserved factor that can be decomposed into a contract-specific and a time- to-maturity effect. Once we do this, we find that the coefficients on the forward premium are much closer to one. The latent factor is shown to be related to conventional proxies of risk.


Kerstin Bernoth & Jürgen von Hagen & Casper G. de Vries, 2010. "The Forward Premium Puzzle and Latent Factors Day by Day", Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 989, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.


forward premium puzzle, futures rates, latent factor